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Research from Stanford University published in April concluded that sports bettors remain “overoptimistic,” generally expecting to break even despite losing an average of 7.5 cents on every dollar wagered.
“Overoptimism is largest among bettors who partake in a complex type of bet known as a parlay,” the Stanford researchers wrote. “Compared to other forms of betting, parlays are more likely to be driven by bias.”
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How to play Inspector Gadget
Lottomatica CEO Guglielmo Angelozzi described its merger with Cirsa as a “low-risk proposition”, during an investor call detailing the deal on Wednesday.
The Wednesday announcement promised the merger of the two listed gaming giants would create the second-largest listed global gaming and sports betting operator, with a pro forma adjusted EBITDA of approximately €2 billion ($2.3 billion).
Angelozzi, who is set to lead the combined company as CEO, told analysts on the post-announcement call that the deal was expected to be a “low-risk proposition” given the consistent growth demonstrated by both Lottomatica and Cirsa in recent years.
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However, some media industry observers have questioned whether trading activity can reliably stand in for broader public opinion. There are also concerns among critics over the growing links between news organizations and prediction platforms.
At the same time, prediction market operators are facing regulatory tussles in the US. State regulators are moving to shut down the firms under gambling laws. The companies say their contracts should be regulated at the federal level as derivatives.
However, the sector has grown substantially despite such disputes. Bernstein predicted in April that annual prediction market volume could reach $1 trillion by 2030. The research estimated volume was around $51 billion in 2025 and could grow to around $240 billion in 2026.
