Bison Rising Megaways

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Robinson calls prediction markets “the main event”. His argument is not simply that US customers are moving from sportsbooks to prediction markets. The more important point is that sportsbooks no longer have the relatively protected market that was once assumed.

Kalshi, Robinhood, Crypto.com and DraftKings’ own prediction-market operation are all competing for activity around sporting events. Beynon says prediction markets are having a larger effect on valuations than on fundamentals so far.

The existence of a new competitor does not automatically mean sportsbook revenue will collapse. But valuations do not require proof of collapse to fall. A loss of confidence in future growth can be enough.

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“One fact of financial life should never be forgotten. Wall Street–to use the term in its figurative sense–would like its customers to make money, but what truly causes its denizens’ juices to flow is feverish activity. At such times, whatever foolishness can be marketed will be vigorously marketed–not by everyone but always by someone,” Buffett warned.

Buffett was not always entirely anti-gambling. Before commercial sports betting expanded across the United States, he regularly offered $1 million annually to any Berkshire Hathaway employee who submitted a perfect NCAA March Madness men’s basketball bracket.

To date, no individual has ever recorded a verified perfect NCAA tournament bracket.

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EDITOR’S NOTE: A new “Vegas Myths Busted” publishes every Monday, with a bonus Flashback Friday edition. Today’s edition originally ran on Jan. 15, 2024. 

In the 1960s, back when Las Vegas’ Meadows Addition neighborhood was nice, showgirls lived there. They liked to sunbathe au naturel at their apartment pools because they didn’t like tan lines.

That’s the commonly told story of how the Naked City, a community of low-rent apartment buildings and houses in the shadow of the Stratosphere just north of the Las Vegas Strip, got its nickname.